When political pundits or politics
geeks speculate about 2016, there is only one “given.” Barack Obama will
not be the Democratic presidential nominee. During the 2016 campaign,
Obama will either be completing his second term or he will be a
discredited president who was rejected by the voters in 2012.
Election of a Republican president in 2012 will probably freeze out
any GOP contenders in 2016 other than the incumbent. If Obama is
re-elected, the race for the nomination will be wide open in both
parties.
For Republican candidates such as Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Newt
Gingrich, the 2012 campaign will be their last window of opportunity.
Although she is much younger and could theoretically be on the
presidential “mention list” for two more decades, 2012 is almost
certainly Sarah Palin’s ”do or die” year. Lacking elective office, she
would find it difficult to sustain public interest in the long term
In 2016, unless they have an incumbent president, the Republicans will be looking for new faces. Bobby Jindal,
governor of Louisiana, tops the list. Jindal, son of Indian immigrant
parents and a convert to Christianity, impressed many with his
leadership during the Hurricane Gustav evacuations. He was also selected
to deliver the Republican response to Obama’s State of the Union
address in 2009. Married with three children, he studied at New College
in Oxford.
Jeb Bush, brother and son of two former presidents, was widely
admired for his performance as governor of Florida. Because voters are
still suffering from “Bush fatigue,” Jeb had no choice but to pass up a
run in 2008 and deny interest in a 2012 campaign. Widely popular within
the party, 2016 could be his year. A graduate of the University of
Texas, Bush is married and has three children.
Chris Christie, Republican governor of New Jersey, famously told
television host David Gregory that “he may need a job after 2013.” Early
in the Obama administration, he set Republican hearts aflutter with his
victory over Democrat Jon Corzine. Christie, already a media favorite
after only a year in office, is married with four children. He attended
Seton Hall University.
Tim Pawlenty,
outgoing governor of Minnesota, has been testing the presidential waters
ever since he was said to be on McCain’s short list as a vice
presidential pick in 2008. Pawlenty, married with two daughters, may use
a race for the Senate in 2012 as a springboard to higher office. He is a
graduate of the University of Minnesota Law School.
Paul Ryan, the young, telegenic and issue-driven congressman from
Wisconsin, will be a highly visible Obama foil from his position as
House Budget Committee chairman. From there, he can tout his proposals
for entitlement and tax reform as alternatives to Democratic policies.
Married with three children, he is a graduate of Miami University of
Ohio.
South Dakota Sen. John Thune
defeated Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004 and was
re-elected in 2010 without opposition. Although he is interested in
2012, he may decide, because of the crowded field, to defer a run until
2016. He holds an MBA from the University of South Dakota.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden will automatically figure in speculation about the 2016 Democratic nomination.
Clinton, former First Lady and senator from New York, will be 69
years old in 2016, the same age as Ronald Reagan when he was elected to
his first term. She has insisted in recent television interviews,
however, that she has no intention of ever again seeking elective
office.
Biden, who was a highly regarded senator from Delaware, never got
over the “presidential bug.”He would be a natural heir to Obama, but at
the age 74 in 2016, he would be considered “too old.’
Andrew Cuomo,
elected as governor of New York in 2010, will be widely touted for the
2016 Democratic nomination. Cuomo, a graduate of Fordham University and
Albany Law School, served as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban
Development during the Clinton administration and as state attorney
general. He is the son of former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo and was
formerly married to Kerry Kennedy, a daughter of the late Robert F.
Kennedy. They have three children.
If Rahm Emanuel
is elected mayor of Chicago in 2011, he could logically use that office
as a springboard. Emanuel, who recently resigned as Obama’s chief of
staff, was an architect, as chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, of
the Democratic takeover in 2006. Emanuel, who received a master’s at
Northwestern University, is married and has three children. His biggest
obstacles to future political advancements are the cut-throat world of
Chicago politics and his reputation as an aggressive “take no prisoners”
mentality.
Tim Kaine,
former governor of Virginia, was considered a potential Democratic vice
presidential candidate in 2008. His prospects for a White House were
hurt by the fact that, as chairman of the Democratic National Committee,
his name will be forever associated with the party’s drubbing in 2010.
Kaine is a graduate of Harvard Law School.
Kathleen Sebelius, former governor of Kansas and current Secretary of
Health and Human Services, has the resume and record to make a serious
run for the presidency. Her father, John Gilligan, was governor of Ohio.
Married with two sons, she holds a master’s degree in public
administration from the University of Kansas. She was so well-respected
in the Democratic Party that she was chosen to give the party’s
response to President Bush’s 2008 State of the Union.
Additional aspirants for the presidency are bound to surface after
the 2012 and 2014 elections. In fact, the eventual 2016 presidential
nominees may now be virtually unknowns. Keep in mind that in 1970, few
people outside of Georgia heard of Jimmy Carter, and in 2002,
practically no one knew who Barack Obama was.
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